Our Technology
Decoding Market Complexity
Financial markets are not just volatile—they are fundamentally non-stationary:
a complex system of endless interacting forces, where any patterns of behavior are continually evolving… or breaking down. What worked yesterday may fail tomorrow, not due to randomness, but because the underlying behavioral dynamics have shifted into an entirely different regime.
Traditional quant approaches often assume trading data follows consistent patterns over time. This assumption breaks down precisely when you need it most: during regime transitions, structural breaks, and periods of heightened uncertainty.
Our Machine Learning Breakthrough:
Regime Intelligence
Since 2018, our multidisciplinary team has developed purpose-built algorithms for one of quantitative finance’s most challenging problems: regime identification – discovering and quantifying periods of distinct asset, sector, and thematic behaviors …in real-time.
Our R&D innovations — which have been featured in prestigious academic journals and conferences — center on a core breakthrough: detecting regime changes at the individual asset level, while simultaneously capturing dynamic interdependencies across multiple financial time series. This dual capability reveals how assets behave both individually and within peer contexts, and crucially, how those behaviors persist through time.
Solving Complex Temporal Relationships
Most available tools struggle with two fundamental challenges: modeling temporal behaviors inherent to financial time series, and accounting for complex interdependencies among macro forces, sectors, and individual assets. Our approach addresses both simultaneously:
Dynamic Pattern Recognition
Our ensemble models combine supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms to capture nonlinear interplays across multiple financial time series, revealing regime structures that simpler, linear models cannot detect.
Adaptive Regime Discovery
Rather than forcing data into predetermined categories, PSIMON identifies the natural regime structure for each asset within a user’s investment universe.
Early Signal Detection
Through continuous cross-correlation analysis and regime-switching probabilistic analyses, PSIMON recognizes changes in asset, sector and market regimes as they emerge, before most traditional methods can identify such shifts.
Beyond Pattern Recognition:
Probabilistic Conviction Scoring
Regime identification is just the beginning. PSIMON’s Conviction Scoring combines regime intelligence with sophisticated ensemble forecasting models to generate probabilistic screening and rankings across your investment universe.
Rather than “crystal ball” price predictions, PSIMON quantifies the most likely distribution of outcomes for any asset set, given current regime conditions and market context. The system processes millions of cross-sectional and time-series data points daily — from macro factors including currencies, commodities, and interest rates, to granular sector and security behaviors —distilling this complexity into conviction rankings, screenings and scores.
The result: clarity on what matters, when it matters.
Institutional-Grade Validation
- Stress-Tested Robustness: our models are trained across major market dislocations, including challenging environments rarely captured by conventional models
- Non-Stationary Optimization: Designed to adaptively discover optimal regime structures, enhancing resilience to market evolution
- False Positive Minimization: Engineered to minimize the momentum-chasing biases that commonly plague technical systems
- Continuous Evolution: Self-improving algorithms incorporate new market conditions without degrading performance on previously learned situations
Applied Science for Portfolios
For portfolio managers and research teams, this translates into a quantitative edge: the ability to identify when key relationships are shifting, when correlations are breaking down, and when sectors, themes, and individual securities enter predictable versus unpredictable phases.
The result? A statistically robust view of your investment universe and portfolios that helps you see more clearly and achieve superior risk-adjusted returns by staying ahead of — rather than reacting to — structural changes in your favorite stocks and themes, or the broader market.
Want to learn more?
